The soft aviation insurance market has been going on for 10 years, such a long time that many underwriters, brokers and their clients have never experienced anything else. Among aviation insurance people, there was more and more talk about this so-called new normal as if the wildly cyclical nature of the business had disappeared and would never return.
And while this latest market swing has a somewhat tentative feel to it, there are reasons to think it is the beginning of the next hard market cycle. And reasons to think not.